This should facilitate planning and hopefully implementation. There is evidence that the fertility decline has reduced numbers of childhood deaths, if not rates. It has reduced selected high-risk pregnancies. Some risks, such as drowning, may have increased due to reduced toddler supervision. The fertility decline has reduced selected high-risk pregnancies and the absolute numbers of maternal deaths considerably.
There is potential for further reductions, if early childbearing can be reduced by delaying marriage. Factors accelerating rural-urban migration contribute to changing family structures where young women and young men are exposed to risks of urban life. These exposures were not found in traditional Bangladeshi life. The poverty-driven search for employment can result in circumstances where high-risk behaviours become acceptable.
Rising population densities can force people to migrate to malaria-endemic rural areas, thus adding to the populations at risk of resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria. High-density living and crowding is a risk factor for air-borne diseases, such as TB. Other infectious diseases, e. Global warming will likely increase the risk for certain vectorborne diseases, e.
As described, rapid urbanization will create possibly insurmountable pressures on safe water supplies, and the insecure tenure of slum-life, tends to be associated with lack of basic services, as governments are reluctant to provide them even if resources are available. As above, governments historically tend to avoid providing services to slum-dwellers in fear that it will simply pull more rural migrants into the cities.
In a slowly-modernizing economy, the rapid growth in numbers of youths seeking employment can exceed the capacity of the private and public sectors to generate jobs. The steady shift towards non-communicable diseases resulting from ageing of the population—a direct result of the fertility decline—will carry major implications for the types and costs of drugs and health services for managing common health problems.
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Fertility: Evidence suggests that the recent cessation of outreach family-planning services has selectively disadvantaged the poor, among whom fertility has risen. If this is true, the importance of services for different population subgroups need to be better understood. The same pattern may also apply to women in Sylhet, who may be economically better-off, but have limited mobility.
Their fertility has been consistently higher than in other parts of the country. Learning how to develop health systems to identify high-fertility families and target these families for additional services will be a challenge to the health system. Targeting family-planning programmes to high-parity families and those at high risk of unintended pregnancies.
Preparing for urbanization—improving urban infrastructure and a skilled workforce. Prevent and control diseases of urban slums: tuberculosis, enteric infections, pneumonia, and violence. Family planning: Bangladesh still has a pattern in the use of short-term family-planning methods which are rather inefficient where most women marry while young and complete their childbearing in their mid-twenties, leaving another 20 years of fertile life to ensure protection from unwanted pregnancies.
It is possible that justifiable concerns about poor quality of care and fear of surgical procedures underlie much of the hesitation to adopt long-term or permanent contraceptive methods.
Much has been said about this, but little improvement has eventuated. What can be done about this? Many rural people migrate to urban areas with the hope of finding employment. In many cases, this hope remains unfulfilled. What is the nature of employment in the urban informal sector, and how can employment opportunities be increased in urban areas? Is there a role for urban microcredit? Can it be linked to other direct health interventions? Water and sanitation: What can be done to improve water and sanitation and to minimize water-borne diseases in slum conditions?
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How much is social mobilization effective in creating groups who can organize, for example, funds to sink functional deep tubewells? Or use community savings to construct safe, hygienic latrines? There are numerous examples, from neighbouring countries, of group formation to alleviate the pollution of surface water supplies for urban dwellers.
This tends to involve blocking raw sewerage outlets into city-lakes, preventing industrial wastes from entering city-lakes and ponds, and exposing and preventing further unauthorized land-grabbing of wetlands in urban zones. In addition to expanding the supply of available water for domestic use, it can reduce monsoon flooding in the vulnerable low-lying slums. They are not uniquely urban, but urban conditions tend to be associated with this and other illegal behaviours. What underlies this tendency? What can be done to minimize it and to redirect young people into more meaningful and productive activities?
National Center for Biotechnology Information , U. J Health Popul Nutr. Author information Copyright and License information Disclaimer. Correspondence and reprint requests should be addressed to: Dr. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This article has been cited by other articles in PMC. Abstract Bangladesh currently has a population approaching million and will add another million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. Population projections A more important question is what the future popu- lation growth will be. Open in a separate window. Key messages The density of the Bangladesh population is much higher than any other mega country. Age of marriage has not increased in Bangladesh as it has in other Asian countries.
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Replacement fertility It is worth noting that the exact year in which replacement fertility is achieved is not of great importance. Age structure and population momentum A demographic change that has major implications is the rapid fertility decline of the s. Determinants of future population growth Can changes in any other determinants of population growth play an important role in what future population growth will be in Bangladesh? Fertility Following a dramatic and precipitous decline in the s from almost seven children per woman late s to just over three children per woman early s , fertility has been stagnant for a decade.
Family planning A puzzling feature of the fertility plateau was the fact that contraceptive prevalence rates CPRs continued to rise steadily throughout the s, from Age at marriage In a country undergoing a major fertility transition, it is usual to see a gradual delay in age at marriage for young women.
Implications of population growth and ageing for health systems There will be two ways in which population growth impacts patterns of disease and the need for health services. Urban health conditions and challenges The health of the urban poor or slum dwellers is primarily due to crowding and lack of access to basic services, such as water and sanitation.
Population density and crowding Rural Bangladesh has a relatively high population density of per sq km This is sparse compared to the urban population densities from the latest slum-mapping 5 , which are 30 times higher, averaging 23, nationwide 7, in Barisal City Corporation to 29, in Dhaka metropolitan. How are these challenges consistent with the MDGs?
MDG 1—Target 2: Halve the proportion of hungry people Food production has kept pace with population growth for the past few decades, but may not continue due to reaching the limits of domestic agricultural production. MDG 2—Target 3: Ensure that boys and girls can complete primary schooling The number of children eligible for primary schooling has now stabilized and will not increase further. MDG 4—Target 5: Reduce under-five mortality rates There is evidence that the fertility decline has reduced numbers of childhood deaths, if not rates.
MDG 5—Target 6: Reduce the maternal mortality ratio The fertility decline has reduced selected high-risk pregnancies and the absolute numbers of maternal deaths considerably.
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MDG 6—Target 8: Reverse the incidence of malaria and TB Rising population densities can force people to migrate to malaria-endemic rural areas, thus adding to the populations at risk of resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria. MDG 7—Target Access to safe water and basic sanitation As described, rapid urbanization will create possibly insurmountable pressures on safe water supplies, and the insecure tenure of slum-life, tends to be associated with lack of basic services, as governments are reluctant to provide them even if resources are available.
MDG 7—Target Improve the lives of slum-dwellers As above, governments historically tend to avoid providing services to slum-dwellers in fear that it will simply pull more rural migrants into the cities. MDG 8—Target Strategies for decent and productive work for youth In a slowly-modernizing economy, the rapid growth in numbers of youths seeking employment can exceed the capacity of the private and public sectors to generate jobs. MDG 8—Target Provide access to affordable, essential drugs The steady shift towards non-communicable diseases resulting from ageing of the population—a direct result of the fertility decline—will carry major implications for the types and costs of drugs and health services for managing common health problems.
The way forward Targeting family-planning programmes to high-parity families and those at high risk of unintended pregnancies. Emphasizing longer-term methods for family planning. Prepare for and provide health services for urban areas. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Do better family planning services reduce abortion in Bangladesh?
Bairagi R. Effects of sex preference on contraceptive use, abortion and fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh. Int Family Plan Perspect.
Population Challenges for Bangladesh in the Coming Decades
Improved indicators of infant mortality for integrated primary healthcare programmes. Slums of urban Bangladesh: mapping and census. Dhaka: Centre for Urban Studies; Food and Agriculture Organization. Land and Water Division. Country paper Bangladesh: impact of land utilization systems on agricultural productivity. Tokyo: Asian Productivity Organization; Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
Bangladesh statistical pocketbook. Dhaka: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics; Enfield: Middlesex University, Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Support Center Support Center. External link. For reprint rights: Times Syndication Service. Choose your reason below and click on the Report button. This will alert our moderators to take action. Get instant notifications from Economic Times Allow Not now You can switch off notifications anytime using browser settings.
Politics and Nation. Defence Defence National International Industry. Company Corporate Trends Deals. International Business World News. IDBI Bank. Market Watch. Pinterest Reddit. Traditionally, economic development has worked in a similar way. When a country first shifts from agrarian poverty to industrialization, it tends to start out in light manufacturing, especially textiles. Later it masters more complex manufactured products, and finally it progresses to inventing its own cutting-edge technology.
That certainly seems to describe the experience of South Korea and Taiwan, which reached developed-country status relatively recently. As these countries got richer and their wages rose, low-tech labor-intensive manufacturing industries tended to migrate to countries with cheaper workers. Recently, one of the biggest beneficiaries of this process has been Bangladesh. This economic development path has no doubt come at a real human and social cost -- Bangladesh's workers suffer harsh working conditions and many industrial accidents, including a horrific factory collapse in that killed more than a thousand people.
But overall, the tried-and-true industrialization strategy seems to be working. Also on the drawing board is a passage similar to the Ruili-Kyaukpyu branch road. This route, with a total length of 1, km, runs from Kunming to Qingshuihe and links to Yangon after leaving the Chinese border. The length of the Kunming-Qingshuihe section is km, and the Myanmar section is 1, km. Where rail link planning is concerned, the Pan-Asia Railway Network comprises the east, central and west lines.
The Yunnan section of the east line is reportedly under construction. Building of the central line has already made some progress, with China signing cooperation documents with Laos and Thailand at the end of last year. Construction is expected to commence soon. Further development of Kyaukpyu will help to advance the construction of transport infrastructure between Yunnan and Myanmar and promote economic, trade and logistics ties between the two places.
In the longer term, once the route between China and Myanmar is opened, goods from the inland regions especially those from southwestern China will use it for exports to Southeast Asia, as well as for transhipment to other parts of the world via Indian Ocean ports. According to the Yunnan Department of Transportation, the drop and pull transport mode is currently being used at the borders between China, Laos and Thailand. In future, upon the signing of a China-Laos-Thailand tripartite transport facilitation agreement, cross-border customs clearance will be made more convenient, but this may involve complicated issues such as documentations, licences and insurance.
According to the Kunming Development and Reform Commission, there are plans to turn the city into a transport hub linking China by land with South Asia and Southeast Asia, as well as a national logistics nodal city and a regional-level international logistics centre. However, according to the Yunnan Department of Commerce, the standard of the logistics industry in the province is not high and its development is somewhat dispersed. It was also proposed that construction of the Dianzhong New Area be designated as an important move in major initiatives and regional development strategies such as the Belt and Road and Yangtze River Economic Belt, as well as being a significant pivot in creating a hub in China that reaches out to South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Located on the east and west flanks of Kunming city proper, Dianzhong New Area is scheduled to become a modern urban area within 20 years. It will contain a number of industrial parks — such as an economic and technological development zone, and the Kunming airport economic zone — that aim to grow emerging industries and modern services. For example, the airport economic zone in the eastern section of the new area intends to develop airport-related industries and logistics services.
The new area will also be built into an export processing base serving South Asia and Southeast Asia.